Nordic Semiconductor: 10x potential at the nexus of EdgeAI and Satellite IoT

Early innings of a multi-year re-rate as stock decouples from legacy trends

Note: we were in the middle of preparing this write-up when news of advanced M&A talks between Texas Instruments and Silicon Labs surfaced. In the interest of time we will be crisp and to the point. Nordic Semiconductor is one of the most exciting names we have been researching. The market is stuck in the rear-view mirror at a critical inflection point: a new product roll-out fully aligned with the structural growth in EdgeAI and the emergence of the Satellite-enabled economy.

A 10x in the making: on the cusp of a multi-year re-rate

Nordic Semiconductor (NOD.OL $2.5B mkt. cap) is a fabless semiconductor company based in Norway with a market leading position in the IoT connectivity market (specifically low-power wireless).

On an LTM (Sep’25) basis Nordic generated $60m EBITDA on $648m of sales.

Its closest comp, Silicon Labs ($742m LTM Sales but negative EBITDA) is in the process of getting acquired by Texas Instrument for $7.5b ($4.9B market cap pre-offer). This represents roughly 3x the size of NOD despite NOD being of similar size and profitable.

We think a 3x outcome would be a low case for NOD.

The market is fundamentally under appreciating the Company’s mid to long-term potential and is evaluating its prospects based on a legacy model:

• Workhorse nRF52 chip (90% of sales) that has low wallet share (1$ ASP)

• Hardware only business tied to cyclical volumes

• High fixed cost base resulting at times in negative operating leverage

• Multiples “look rich” at face value on a look back basis

Our variant perception:

• Technology leader in the midst of product roll-out after years of R&D

• Recent M&A positions it as a full stack player (hardware, software, cloud)

• New TAM in EdgeAI and Satellite IoT is heavily discounted

As a result we expect double-stacked growth from (i) significantly increased wallet capture and (ii) to 8-10% volume growth from fast-evolving end-markets.

We anticipate “New NOD” to compound its revenue base to >$4B by 2030 with significantly improved operating leverage to boot, resulting in a ~$30B Company.

We also like the fact that the stock is listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange leaving further re-rate potential as the stock gains broader global recognition.